College Pick'em: Trojans safest pick to start

By Will Harris
Special to ESPN.com
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College Pick 'em is a pick-the-winner game with a twist: Players must rank their picks in order of confidence. It's not as easy as it looks, so I'll weigh in every Thursday to help you make those tough decisions. Be sure to log in to the College Pick 'em page on Mondays for the upcoming week's matchups and previews, and don't forget to check the message boards for plenty of chatter about all the week's action.

USC @ Virginia (10 points)

The Trojans were decimated by graduation, losing an amazing seven players to the first two rounds of the NFL draft. The remaining talent is still among the best in the nation, and there should be plenty of firepower to handle a rebuilding Virginia team. The Trojans' inexperienced offensive line is the team's weak link, but a completely retooled Virginia defensive front won't be able to apply enough pressure to new USC quarterback Mark Sanchez. Virginia also has issues in the offensive trenches, and won't be able to move the ball well enough to stay in this one until the fourth quarter. USC 38-10

Northwestern versus Syracuse (9 points)

It's hard to see why anything will change for a Syracuse team that's been outgained and outscored by the widest margin in the Big East in all three of coach Greg Robinson's seasons at the helm. The Orange have been downright noncompetitive at times, and have dropped four straight road openers by an average margin of 30 points. Northwestern has won six games in four of the past five seasons, and with 15 starters returning the Cats have legitimate bowl aspirations once again. Senior quarterback C.J. Bacher threw for over 3,600 yards last year and shouldn't have any trouble moving the Wildcats' spread offense down the field against a hapless Syracuse defense that's habitually out of position. Northwestern 35-12

Missouri versus Illinois (8 points)

Missouri's offense will garner most of the attention, as Chase Daniel and five other starters return from last year's record-setting crew. The Tigers also return kicker Jeff Wolfert, who hasn't missed a single kick in conference play in the past two years! Triggerman Juice Williams and the Illini also have the makings of a potent offense, though a replacement for star running back Rashard Mendenhall must be found. Missouri built a lead and held on for a 40-34 win last year, when both schools ended up in New Year's Day bowls. It'll be a larger margin of victory for the Tigers this season, thanks to a defense that has a chance to be the school's best in decades. Missouri 41-21

Oregon versus Washington (7 points)

Oregon has taken four straight in the series, by an average margin of 23 points. Last year the Ducks racked up an incredible 465 rushing yards versus the Huskies. Even though coach Mike Bellotti must replace the superb backfield tandem of Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart, 2008 doesn't figure to be much different. Quarterback Jake Locker is one of the league's best, but the Huskies are still a very young team, with more than a handful of underclassmen in starting roles. Oregon isn't the national title hopeful it was last year prior to Dixon's injury, but the Ducks have more than enough firepower to forestall an upset. Oregon 38-24

Oklahoma State @ Washington State (6 points)

Highly regarded offensive coordinator Larry Fedora is now the head coach at Southern Mississippi, and the Cowboys' leading rusher and receiver have departed as well. Still, Oklahoma State returns seven starters -- including quarterback Zac Robinson -- from a potent attack that gained nearly 500 yards per game last season. The Pokes will put plenty of points on the board against a sad-sack Washington State defense that was the second worst in the porous Pac-10 last year. New Cougars coach Paul Wulff will eventually have an offensive-oriented team, but it will take time for a new quarterback to fill the large shoes of Alex Brink, who leaves as the school's all-time passing leader. Oklahoma State 38-21

TCU @ New Mexico (5 points)

The Lobos will want to avenge last year's embarrassing 37-0 whitewashing, but TCU has dominated this series, winning all three meetings since joining the Mountain West by an average margin of 22 points. The Frogs will again have one of the league's top stop units, and the offense should be capable of scoring on a lightly experienced Lobos defense. New Mexico returns workhorse running back Rodney Ferguson, but is ill-equipped to play catch-up with four new linemen trying to protect Donovan Porterie from the blitz-happy TCU defense and no experienced receivers to make plays. TCU 17-6

Alabama versus Clemson (4 points)

Clemson is loaded at the offensive skill positions, along the defensive line and in the secondary. The Tigers have never landed a berth in the ACC title game, but are the favorite in the Atlantic division. A young offensive line is Clemson's weak link, and it's to Alabama's advantage to play this team early before the line has a chance to come together and pave big holes for stellar backs James Davis and C.J. Spiller. The Tide can keep pace offensively, boasting an experienced signal-caller in John Parker Wilson and a deep stable of backs. Wilson will operate behind one of the SEC's best offensive fronts and will throw to uberrecruit Julio Jones. Clemson's primary 2008 goal is that elusive ACC championship, while Bama needs to make a statement after falling flat in November during Nick Saban's first season. Look for a more focused Alabama team to surprise Clemson with an early lead and hang on for the win. Alabama 31-28

Michigan State @ California (3 points)

Michigan State is an ascendant program under second-year boss Mark Dantonio, and the trip to Berkeley is a litmus test for the program's progress. The Spartans snapped a three-year postseason drought in Dantonio's rookie campaign, and will be looking to build on that success by ambushing a California team that lost 1,500-yard rusher Justin Forsett and the top five receivers. Jeff Tedford's Cal teams have fared well against Big Ten opponents, but it may take the highly regarded offensive strategist some time to get his assault humming with just four starters back on that side of the ball. Michigan State plays hard all the time, while Tedford's Cal teams have been known for their mental lapses. Surprise is on the side of the visitors, and the Spartans could very well notch the upset. Michigan State 27-23

East Carolina versus Virginia Tech (2 points)

East Carolina suffered a 17-7 loss in last year's emotional lid-lifter in Blacksburg, running the ball on the vaunted Tech defense with unexpected success. The Pirates must replace top running back Chris Johnson but are otherwise loaded on both sides of the ball, at least by Conference USA standards. ECU is the C-USA East division favorite this year, and though the Hokies wear the same mantle in the ACC Coastal, the latter designation is mostly by default. Defensive coordinator Bud Foster must retool a defense that was hit very hard by graduation, while the offense has question marks at running back and receiver. This is the most inexperienced Hokies edition in several years, and while talent abounds, it could be a team ripe for an early upset. East Carolina 21-20

Michigan versus Utah (1 point)

Forced to replace coach Lloyd Carr, quarterback Chad Henne, running back Mike Hart, the top two receivers, four starters on the offensive line and the top four tacklers, Michigan faces its most obvious rebuilding year in decades. It will be a long season for new coach Rich Rodriguez & Co., at least by Maize and Blue standards. Utah is a legitimate BCS-buster candidate, with plenty of playmakers on offense and six starters back from last season's league-leading defense. However, the Utes have fared poorly in season openers under Kyle Whittingham, and the Wolverines won't be easily taken unaware after last year's season-opening loss to Appalachian State. Michigan 27-24

Will Harris is a college football and fantasy baseball analyst for ESPN.com



 
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